What a weekend! If you followed the College Football Playoff picks, you’re likely feeling great; if you leaned heavily on our NFL primaries, you’re probably feeling like Trevor Lawrence, gutted.
The duality of Wild Card weekend was on full display. We saw organizational stability win out in the college games, only to be reminded that in the NFL, "Superman" still wears #17 in Buffalo and home underdogs aren't always a lock.
Here is the breakdown of how we fared and where it all went sideways.
College Football
We went 2-0 here as our "organizational stability" thesis held firm.
Miami Hurricanes (-3) vs. Ole Miss: It was a Fiesta Bowl classic. Miami’s defensive line lived in the backfield just like we expected, and Carson Beck’s late-game heroics sealed the 31-27 win.
Indiana Hoosiers (-3.5) vs. Oregon: Total domination. Indiana's defense turned Oregon over three times in the first half alone, proving that without a ground game, the Ducks were sitting ducks. The Hoosiers cruised to a 56-22 victory.
NFL Primaries: The "Bad Beat" Report
This was a tough pill to swallow. We went 0-2 on high-conviction plays due to some late-game collapses.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5) vs. Buffalo Bills: We had the right read on the "Trench War" for most of the game, but Josh Allen simply went into "Hero Mode." Between his 250+ passing yards and two rushing touchdowns, he willed the Bills to a 27-24 comeback. A game of inches that just didn't fall our way.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) vs. Houston Texans: This was the definition of a bad beat. The game was a 7-6 defensive slugfest deep into the second half, but the Steelers' offense eventually sputtered, and Houston broke it open with 23 points in the 4th quarter. A 30-6 final that felt much closer for 45 minutes.
Picks to Consider & Prop Shop
A mixed bag here, but some bright spots:
Green Bay Packers (-1.5): A brutal loss. Jordan Love and the Pack held a 21-3 halftime lead before the Bears pulled off the largest comeback in their playoff history to win 31-27.
HOU/PIT Under 39.5: A winner! The "slugfest" we predicted held true for most of the night, finishing at 36 total points.
Puka Nacua Over 90.5 yards: An easy win. The Rams throw the ball to their superstar receiver.
Jordan Love Under 225.5 pass yards: A loss. The weather wasn’t as bad as the models anticipated and Love was able to make some plays through the air.
Looking Ahead: The Divisional Round
We aren't letting one bad NFL Sunday derail the season. The Divisional Round is where the "Sharps" really make their money, and we are already deep into the film for next weekend's matchups.
The lines are out, the movement has begun, and we’ll have our full breakdown in your inbox this Friday.
Stay tuned—it’s time to bounce back